NOV/ DE C 20 12 7 ® By STEPHEN HARDY Yup, it’s that time again. Here’s what we think will be hot in optical technology over the next 12 months. F ROM A BUSINESS perspective, 2012 could be described as the year technology developers waited for a market recovery that never came. But the “ macroeconomic uncertainty” that became the year’s most repeated catchphrase failed to dampen discussion of which directions technology development should pursue. The first wave of 100- Gbps systems established itself in the field this year – and the second wave is nearly ready to join it. Consensus began to build on how to construct colorless, directionless, and contentionless ( CDC) reconfigurable optical add/ drop multiplexers ( ROADMs), while “ flexible grid” capabilities for such platforms approached mandatory status as well. Meanwhile, the non- optical aspects of optical communications also took a starring role. Some of these advances involved electronics – particularly work on coherent- related semiconductors – but several were software- based. Indeed, many of the conversations this year between carriers and technology developers revolved around control planes and provisioning systems. We’ll likely see trends that played out in 2012 continue to drive technology development in 2013. Fortunately for those of us charged with writing technology forecast articles, next year won’t be a complete repeat of this one, however. In the following pages, Lightwave will review what should be truly new and what will be “ new again” in the following areas: 1. Networking 2. Fiber to the home 3. Cable- operator applications 4. Test and measurement 5. Equipment design As has become traditional, our prognostications combine basic research; conversations with analysts, developers, and network implementers; and a rather beat- up Ouija Board with suspect reception. We’ll also occasionally stray from what we think will happen to what we think should happen. For example, we think carriers should buy more optical communications gear next year – but to say for sure whether they will is beyond even Lightwave ’s powers of foresight.